Trade in uncertain times: What global volatility means for entering and exporting from Australia
Why business leaders entering or exporting from Australia need to pay attention to global trade policy shifts in 2025.
By The Hon. Philip Dalidakis
5 MIN READ
> Why this matters now
As a former Victorian Trade Minister and Australia’s representative to APEC’s Business Advisory Council, I’ve seen firsthand how quickly the global trade environment can shift and how often businesses are caught off guard.
In recent months, we’ve entered a new phase of economic nationalism. The United States has ramped up tariffs on electric vehicles, steel, and solar products. In China and the EU, retaliatory measures are already forming. The ripple effects are felt across supply chains, procurement rules, pricing structures, and export markets, including here in Australia.
For international companies trying to enter the Australian market, or Australian exporters navigating policy headwinds abroad, this isn’t just a policy issue. It’s a business risk and a strategic opportunity. I’ve written this to help business leaders understand how fast these changes are moving, and more importantly, how to respond. The goal isn’t to be alarmed, but to be informed and better positioned to make smart decisions in a shifting global landscape.
> Who this affects and how
| Entering the Australian market | Exporting from Australia |
| Manufacturers with supply chains in the US, China or Europe now exposed to pricing and logistics shocks | Exporters selling into the US or China facing subsidy-driven competition or tariff volatility |
| Foreign-owned firms needing to demonstrate local value to secure government support | Companies reliant on a narrow set of export markets needing to diversify and hedge against risk |
| Businesses pitching to government in sectors like infrastructure, energy or tech | Firms in energy transition, agriculture or advanced manufacturing navigating shifting trade incentives |
> What this means for business: risks and opportunities
| Business area | What to watch | What this means |
| Pricing and cost base | Tariffs and transport volatility | Margins will shift fast. You need clear local costing models. |
| Brand and procurement positioning | Governments prefer “local-first” suppliers | You must show a tangible contribution to the local economy. |
| Government engagement | Policy signals are favouring aligned players | Positioning matters. Engage early and with intent. |
| Market expansion strategy | Stability is no longer the default | Build in policy risk, and consider partnerships in multiple regions. |
| Messaging and stakeholder trust | Offshore ownership can attract scrutiny | Your comms needs to reflect public interest, not just commercial goals. |
Five things you need to plan for
- You’re not just competing with local firms – you’re competing with foreign governments
– Massive US and EU subsidies are reshaping competition. If you’re not factoring that into pricing or supply chain decisions, you’re already behind. - Australia is open, but selective
– Market access is not guaranteed. You need a clear answer to what your business is contributing – whether it’s local jobs, innovation, regional capability or emissions reduction. - Brand and narrative matter
– How your business is perceived by Australian governments and media affects procurement, investment approvals, and partnerships. Build a local-first story with substance. - Policy alignment is no longer optional
– If you’re aligned with government priorities, you’ll find doors open. If not, you’ll find yourself stuck at the back of the queue – or worse, caught in a policy backlash. - Trade tension is showing up in unexpected places
– This is no longer about tariffs alone. It’s in ESG rules, data laws, supply chain transparency, and how governments use procurement to reward alignment. Pay attention, even if it’s not your core market.
Case in point
Recently, Orizontas worked with three large resource and manufacturing companies to develop internal and external communications for a renewable energy joint venture. The challenge was to align three different workforces and stakeholders under one national story – while managing sensitivities around foreign ownership, government funding, and energy transition.
The result was a successful announcement and government engagement plan – one that worked across jurisdictions and held up under political and media scrutiny.
How to think about all of this
You don’t need to become a policy expert. But you do need to know what’s changing, and what it means for you. Start by asking:
- Where are governments choosing to intervene?
- Is your business aligned with national priorities?
- Are you exposed to external policy shocks you can’t control?
- And just as importantly, are you positioned to benefit from the shifts already underway?
For companies operating across borders, trade volatility isn’t something to wait out. It’s something to factor in. The businesses that will come out ahead are the ones that know where the guardrails are moving and get ahead of them before their competitors do.
How Orizontas helps
We work with international companies entering the Australian market and with Australian businesses expanding into the Asia-Pacific and beyond.
We help clients:
- Understand and respond to the policy landscape
- Position themselves for procurement and partnership success
- Build strategies that reduce exposure to trade risk and political volatility
- Translate government priorities into market opportunities
Orizontas has supported more than 50 organisations across sectors including energy, health, infrastructure and manufacturing. We’ve helped position market entrants for government engagement and guided exporters through cross-border policy shifts. Our work has included:
- Supporting a major renewable energy company on Asia–Pacific market entry and stakeholder strategy
- Advising a top five global engineering firm on state and federal positioning in major transport and health infrastructure projects
- Working with an ASX-listed manufacturer to navigate trade tensions and realign its export narrative
If you’re operating across borders – or about to – and want to avoid being caught off guard, now is the time to get your positioning right.
About the author
The Hon. Philip Dalidakis is a Managing Partner at Orizontas and one of Australia’s most experienced advisors at the intersection of politics, policy and business.
He previously served as Victoria’s Minister for Trade and Investment, Innovation and the Digital Economy, and Small Business. He is also currently one of Australia’s three representatives on APEC’s Business Advisory Council (ABAC), where he advises on international trade, regional investment, and economic cooperation across the Asia-Pacific.
Philip brings deep experience in government, industry and cross-border strategy – helping clients navigate political risk, engage with stakeholders, and shape their market entry and export approach. He has worked with ASX-listed companies, global investors, and public institutions across sectors including energy, infrastructure, pharmaceutical and technology.
Contact
The Hon. Philip Dalidakis
Email: philip.dalidakis@orizontas.com.au